Will The Hong Kong Stock Market Usher In Daniel?

In recent years, as the mainland and Hongkong markets are becoming more and more closely linked, the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and A shares is becoming more and more obvious. In this case, the previous supply side reform has helped the related sectors of A shares to take a good turn. In turn, the valuation rate of traditional sectors of the Hong Kong stock market has also been restored. From the trend of the recent two years, the synergy between Hong Kong stock and A shares can be seen.

On the other hand,

At present, the valuation of Hong Kong stock market is still low. The main reason is lack of capital and liquidity. In recent years, the mainland's capital has gone south, and the volume of Hong Kong stock has also broken 100 billion, which has become a signal for the bull market of Hong Kong stock market.

And from the end of last year, the Hong Kong stock market began to show strong strength, and private equity funds also increased the intensity of the layout of Hong Kong stocks.

Many private investors who invest in Hong Kong stocks say that Hong Kong stocks are booming from foreign capital and domestic capital. Foreign investment has revised the expectation of China's economy and exchange rate, while domestic capital is also increasing the layout of Hong Kong stocks.

In addition, the Fed chairman Yellen's speech this week has raised the trend of US stocks, and the Hong Kong stock market also has a linkage with the US stock market, and is expected to be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike. According to historical data, the probability of Hong Kong stocks going up before and after the Fed's interest rate increase is greater than that of its fall.

ICBC international executive director and research director Cheng Cheng accepted the Int'l Financial interview. He said that HSI turnover was a very strong signal for Hong Kong stocks to strengthen. However, he also pointed out that there is still some doubt about how long this wave can last and how high it will eventually rise.

Cheng Shi said: "the short-term strength of the Hong Kong stock market is determined. We can not give a definite answer despite its sustainability. But in the long run, despite the pressure of short-term adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, we are very optimistic about the overall view of Hong Kong stocks this year."

And for

Cheng Cheng pointed out: "if the whole rate hike is really as hawk as Yellen said, then the global overseas capital will still return to the US market, which will have better support for the US dollar trend, and the pressure on the RMB, including the pressure on the entire large and medium China market, will also appear. Therefore, Yellen's relative hawkish speech is not a very good news for the Hong Kong stock market.

However, whether Yellen's hawkish speech can be achieved is a very big question mark. We have many studies that show that Yellen's behavior is still dovish.

"Hong Kong stocks are not just the operation of the mainland funds, but a large part of them is the overseas capital flowing to the Greater China market. The rise in the Hongkong market is not only driven by the southward movement of capital, but also by the inflow of overseas capital. If the Fed has made some unexpected actions, the volatility of the whole market will rise, which will not be conducive to the continued influx of overseas capital into the Hong Kong stock market.

Therefore, Yellen's hawkish remarks are not particularly good news for the Hong Kong stock market, but at the moment there is no significant impact.

Private capital inflow into public offering

Cheng said, "our strategy since last December is that the Hong Kong stock market is particularly optimistic this year on the basis of many macroeconomic fundamentals.

The rise of Hong Kong stocks is actually driven by a "consensus", including public offering and private placement. More and more people are beginning to recognize that Hong Kong stock is an important position in this year's big market allocation. Therefore, the public private equity fund flowing into the Hong Kong stock market is a good performance for them.

Hung Ho, managing director and head of research at the Bank of Hong Kong, also pointed out that in the interview with Zhitong finance, the mainland's capital went south and the volume of Hong Kong stocks was 100 billion. This is a signal for the Hong Kong stock market. The massive influx of private equity funds into the Hong Kong stock market will also bring greater benefits.

For Yellen's speech, Hong Hao said that the Fed's interest rate increase is actually a confirmation of "US economic growth", and the Hong Kong stock market linked to the US dollar will also be supported.

Zhang Yidong, chief strategist and deputy director of the Institute, said that the tide of global configuration in the mainland was just beginning, coupled with the reversal of global capital flows, undervalued but Hong Kong stocks with high returns will usher in a 5 year bull market.

Zhang Yidong pointed out that venture capital began to scale up the Hong Kong stocks in November last year. So far some of the deposits and investment projects have expired at the beginning of the year, so the venture capital has been redistributed, and Hong Kong stocks with high safety and high returns have become the main destinations of venture capital.

At present, the PB rate is only 1 times, much lower than the average of the past ten years.

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