Will The Market Collapse Or The Half-Time Break? The Cycle Of Fund Position Adjustment, Undervalue And Hong Kong Stock Market

In the three trading days since the beginning of the year of the ox, A-share adjustment, a large number of fund group stocks plummeted, and the market style changed.

However, according to the 21st century economic report, reporters interviewed nearly 10 fund managers. Most of them believe that the organization has not collapsed, but it may have come to an end. In fact, some fund managers said that their positions have been adjusted recently, mainly from the early fund group stocks to pro cyclical, undervalued plate and Hong Kong stocks.

Disintegration or intermission?

In fact, the callback pressure of Baotuan stocks after the festival is more obvious. The main reason is that the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank after the festival has caused the market liquidity concerns.

However, Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund believes: "with the withdrawal of cash from the residential sector after the festival, the liquidity will increase correspondingly. In the context of economic recovery, the central bank's medium and long-term liquidity is still cautious. "

But Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, pointed out that for the decline of Baotuan stocks, the withdrawal of funds by the central bank is only an external factor, and profit taking is the internal cause of the adjustment of these Baotuan stocks. "Before the festival, white dragon horse shares continued to rise sharply for a week, short-term gains were too large, many white dragon horse stocks rose more than 30% a month, accumulating a large number of profit margins."

For the recent fund group liquor plate adjustment, Penghua wine ETF fund manager Zhang Yuxiang said that the reason is more emotional and monetary policy. At the present stage, the overseas and domestic monetary policies have negative effects on the overvalued plate, and the wine sector with a large increase in the previous period has a demand for adjustment.

However, Zhang Yuxiang believes that "according to the current data feedback from relevant channels, during the Spring Festival, liquor consumption is good, dynamic sales are good, inventory is low, and prices are stable. After releasing negative emotions, the liquor sector is temporarily adjusted and waiting for the first quarter business data to be implemented to verify the performance."

Many fund personages interviewed by the reporter also believe that it is normal to see a sharp drop in the near future due to the large increase in group stocks in the early stage.

However, most fund managers take a more cautious attitude towards Baotuan stocks. It is generally believed that the market of Baotuan stocks may come to an end. However, most of them do not think that Baotuan stocks will fall sharply from their high level. They even point out that Baotuan stocks may continue to rise in the future after the "half-time break".

Xu ChuanHua, general manager of 10 billion private equity ilow investment, said: "after the festival, there was an obvious correction in the group stocks in the market. The fund annual report shows that the proportion of individual shares held by institutions has decreased significantly. Many institutions cashed their chips in the market promotion and began to change positions for shares. After the 191 market which was dominated by extreme conglomeration a year ago, with the implementation of the annual report forecast, the liquidity driven valuation in the early stage of the market has transformed into performance driven, and entered the stage of separating the fake from the genuine. "

"On the other hand, the liquidity of the central bank's actual operation level continued to tighten around the Spring Festival, which also brought some pressure on the liquidity of group stocks. Even in the abundant funds, the overvalued plate is still not suitable for large proportion of admission. " Xu ChuanHua said.

Zhao Lisong, chairman of shangdegu investment, also believes: "Baotuan shares are basically over. However, this year as a whole, early group stocks should be in a high or a range of shocks, we do not have to worry about it will fall directly

However, Zhang Kexing believes that "after short-term adjustment, there is still a certain upward space in the future for Baotuan stocks, but we do not expect as high an overall return as in 2019 and 2020. This year's valuation has made a very limited contribution to Baotuan's share price, and more contribution may come from the sustained high growth of performance. "

Huang Huayan, manager of Da Dao Xingye Investment Fund, pointed out: "the market is big enough and the capital is enough. As long as the monetary policy does not turn, the market group stocks will continue to rise. After a short period of decline, with the annual report and the first quarter forecast, institutional group stocks will show a pattern of strong ones always strong."

Direction differentiation of warehouse adjustment

When group stocks fall sharply, the market style changes. From a small number of Baotuan stock market rose before the festival, into the general up market. In the three trading days after the festival, when group stocks fell sharply, about 3000 stocks rose.

At this time, fund managers have adopted different coping strategies.

According to the data from Haomai fund, in the two trading days after the festival last week, partial equity funds as a whole slightly increased their positions by 0.16%, and their current positions were 65.70%. Among them, the position of stock fund decreased by 1.57%, the position of standard hybrid fund increased by 0.39%, and the current position was still at 84.10% and 63.25% of historical high.

In this regard, Hao Xinming, manager of Fangxin wealth investment fund, said: "Baotuan shares have accumulated huge profit margins after a long-term rise, and the valuation has overdrawn future performance. From the perspective of cost performance, it has lost its advantage. It has not been loosened before because there is no more certain hot spot in the market. With the improvement of the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States, the expectation of economic recovery has promoted the strength of bulk commodities. When the market determines a new hot spot, funds will overflow from high-level Baotuan stocks and flow into other "Pro cyclical" varieties. If funds can not continue to flow in, the future market may continue to be structured. If funds remain sufficient, the same rise may occur after the adjustment of Baotuan stocks The overall rise of the general rise. "

To be specific, the direction of institutional warehouse adjustment of reporters' interviews has been differentiated.

"Our position is not particularly heavy, about 50% to 60%, mainly adding some technology stocks and chemical stocks," Zhao said

Zhang Kexing pointed out: "recently, Baotuan shares have fallen sharply, we still keep our position unchanged and there is no change. In the near future, especially today, we have made a small increase in positions. The main direction is that we have been relatively optimistic about some leading Internet stocks in Hong Kong stocks in the past six months. Hong Kong stocks will have a good performance opportunity this year

"It is difficult to judge the short-term market in the following period. There may be fluctuations and adjustments in the market. However, there are still certain structural opportunities in the whole year. After short-term adjustment, many stocks can be considered to gradually build positions and buy. In particular, the opportunities for Hong Kong stocks may be greater." Zhang Kexing said.

Huang Huayan, manager of Dadao Xingye Investment Fund, said: "whether to adjust the position should be judged according to the institutional stock selection strategy system and position allocation. If it is a value investment, the profit is very rich, and there is no need to adjust the position. If it is an event driven or growth style, then the recent Pro cyclical and large rise of small and medium-sized stocks is a good example. At present, the Shanghai composite index is still in the bull market trend, but may be in the late bull market. "

"Due to the fact that the undervalued sector has fallen for a long time in recent years and the safety is high, the prices of bulk commodities and basic industrial products on the demand side and the supply side are stronger, and they have advantages in relative valuation," Xu ChuanHua said. In terms of medium and long-term cost performance of the market, pro cyclical stocks, especially those represented by commodities, have more allocation value and stronger certainty. "

Lang Chengcheng, director of Research Department of Furong fund, said, "the market has changed from high to low, leading stocks in high positions have fallen sharply, and small and medium-sized stocks in low positions have risen sharply. Looking forward to 2021, we believe that the overall liquidity environment is in a neutral environment, and the structure of medium and long-term industry leaders outperforming small and medium-sized companies is not over. At present, it is more understood as the "rebalancing" of market style. It is still necessary to be cautious for small and medium-sized enterprises that are pure oversold and rebound. Based on the perspective of performance, we can focus on "small and beautiful" companies with high flexibility and undervalued performance. "

The research and Management Department of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund pointed out that "against the background of the global economic recovery, we believe that the A-share market is generally better, and the structural direction continues to focus on Pro cyclical, high-quality consumption and technology leaders, especially the periodic repair opportunities of the cycle plate."

However, some fund managers are no longer optimistic about group stocks.

Li Kejie, general manager of Quanhong private equity fund, believes that "holding a group is bound to break up.". The recent market, although it can not be concluded that it will break up, but it should be a sign of break up, the market hot spot rotation is normal. At present, I think Hong Kong stocks are more worthy of investment. "

An investment director of a public fund company also said that he had reduced his white wine stocks and invested in undervalued sectors such as finance and real estate.