Analysis On The Impact Of 2025 Central No.1 Document On Cotton Industry Cluster

On February 23, 2025, the Central No.1 Document on Further Deepening Rural Reform, Promoting Agricultural Modernization, and Accelerating the Realization of Overall Rural Revitalization was officially released "Promote stable production and quality improvement of cotton, sugar and natural rubber" The statement of "" points out the direction for the development of cotton industry. As an important agricultural product related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, the stable development of the cotton industry is of great significance for ensuring the supply of raw materials for the textile industry and promoting farmers' income. This paper will discuss in depth from the aspects of policy interpretation, advantages and benefits of large growers, market status analysis, industry trend prediction and global economic impact The impact of 2025 Central No.1 Document on cotton industry cluster.

　 1、 Policy interpretation

（1） Policy orientation of stabilizing production and improving quality

The No. 1 Document of the Central Committee clearly stated that The policy guidance of "promoting stable production and quality improvement of cotton" reflects that the country attaches great importance to the development of cotton industry. In the context of the increasingly fierce competition in the global cotton market, improving cotton production and quality is the key to enhance the competitiveness of China's cotton industry. In terms of stable yield, we will ensure the stable growth of cotton output by stabilizing the cotton planting area, strengthening the construction of agricultural infrastructure, and promoting advanced planting technologies. In terms of quality improvement, it is emphasized to improve the quality and consistency of cotton by optimizing the variety structure, strengthening quality supervision, promoting standardized production and other means.

（2） Policy support and safeguard measures

In order to achieve the goal of stable yield and quality improvement of cotton, the No. 1 document of the central government proposed a series of policy support and safeguard measures. In terms of financial support, we will increase investment in the cotton industry, improve subsidy standards, improve subsidy methods, and ensure the planting income of cotton farmers. In terms of financial support, financial institutions are encouraged to innovate financial products and services, and increase credit support for cotton planting, processing, circulation and other links. In terms of scientific and technological support, we should strengthen agricultural scientific and technological innovation, promote the application of advanced and applicable technologies, and improve the scientific and technological content and production efficiency of the cotton industry. In addition, the document also proposes to strengthen market supervision, maintain market order and ensure the stable operation of the cotton market.

　　 2、 Advantages and benefits of large growers

（1） Scale effect and cost advantage

Large farmers have obvious scale effect in cotton planting. Through large-scale planting, mechanized operation can be realized and labor cost can be reduced. At the same time, more favorable prices can also be obtained in terms of purchasing agricultural materials and land leasing, thus reducing production costs. The support policies for cotton industry in the No. 1 Document of the Central Government will further enhance the scale advantage of large growers and improve their market competitiveness. For example, in terms of agricultural subsidies, large farmers can obtain more subsidy funds due to their large planting area, thus increasing their income.

（2） Technology application and management advantages

Large growers usually have strong financial strength and technical level, and can better apply advanced planting technology and management experience. The No.1 Document of the Central Government emphasizes scientific and technological support and encourages the promotion of advanced and applicable technologies, which will provide more technical support and development opportunities for large growers. Large growers can use smart agricultural technologies such as UAV plant protection and Internet of Things monitoring to achieve precision fertilization and irrigation and improve cotton yield and quality. In addition, large growers also have rich experience in cotton planting management, and can better cope with various natural disasters and market risks.

（3） Policy support and development opportunities

A series of policy support measures proposed in the No. 1 Document of the Central Government will bring more development opportunities to large growers. In terms of industrial integration, encourage large growers to develop projects such as deep processing of agricultural products and integration of agriculture and tourism, expand the industrial chain, and improve industrial added value. In terms of brand building, support large growers to build regional brands, expand sales channels through e-commerce live broadcast and other means, and achieve premium sales. In the aspect of order farming, guide large growers to sign minimum purchase agreements with leading enterprises, lock in the sales price and reduce market risk. These policies and measures will help large farmers achieve sustainable development and improve economic benefits.

III Market status analysis

（1） Supply and demand pattern of global cotton market

In recent years, the supply and demand pattern of the global cotton market has shown some changes. In terms of supply, the cotton output of major cotton producing countries such as the United States, Brazil and India has increased, leading to an increase in global cotton stocks. According to the data of USDA, 2024/25 The annual global cotton output is expected to be 26.3 million tons, an increase of 100% over the previous year 10000 tons. From the perspective of demand, the growth of cotton consumption demand is weak due to the slowdown of global economic growth, trade friction and other factors. In particular, the textile industry, as the main downstream industry of cotton, is facing the pressure of intensified market competition and rising costs, and its demand for cotton is limited.

（2） Price trend of domestic cotton market

The price trend of domestic cotton market is closely related to the global market. two thousand and twenty-four Since, domestic cotton prices have shown a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the year, cotton prices rose due to factors such as early replenishment before the Spring Festival. However, due to the smooth planting of new cotton, the small decrease in the planting area at the supply end and the continuous downturn in downstream demand, cotton prices have changed from It began to fluctuate and fall in mid April. As of July 4, 2024, the closing price of Zheng Mian's main contract was 14650 yuan/ton, down 1000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the year 6.4%。 At present, the domestic cotton market is still in a weak state, with large price fluctuations and increased market uncertainty.

（3） Challenges and opportunities faced by cotton industry

At present, the cotton industry is facing many challenges. On the one hand, the slowdown of global economic growth, trade frictions and other factors have led to unstable cotton market demand and large price fluctuations, which have brought great market risks to cotton farmers and cotton enterprises. On the other hand, the rising cost of cotton production, including the rising price of agricultural materials and labor costs, has compressed the profit space of cotton farmers and enterprises. However, the cotton industry also faces some opportunities. With the improvement of people's living standards and the change of consumption concept, the demand for high-quality and environment-friendly cotton products is increasing, providing market space for the upgrading and development of the cotton industry. In addition, the continuous progress of science and technology, such as the application of biological breeding, smart agriculture and other technologies, has also provided new impetus for the development of the cotton industry.

IV The next trend of cotton industry

（1） Trend of yield and quality improvement

In the No. 1 document of the central government, "stable production and quality improvement" Driven by the policy orientation, the future cotton industry will show a trend of both yield and quality improvement. On the one hand, cotton production is expected to maintain a stable growth through measures such as stabilizing the planting area, strengthening the construction of agricultural infrastructure, and promoting advanced planting technology. On the other hand, with the optimization of variety structure, the strengthening of quality supervision and the promotion of standardized production, cotton quality will be significantly improved. It is expected that in the next few years, China's cotton yield will continue to increase, and the proportion of high-quality cotton will further increase, providing more high-quality raw materials for the textile industry.

（2） Industrial upgrading and transformation trend

In response to market competition and cost pressure, the cotton industry will accelerate its upgrading and transformation. In the planting link, it will develop in the direction of scale, intensification and intelligence to improve production efficiency and resource utilization efficiency. In the processing link, we will strengthen technical transformation and equipment updating, improve the automation and intelligence level of cotton processing, reduce production costs, and improve product quality. In terms of the extension of the industrial chain, it will strengthen the integration and development of cotton, textile, clothing and other downstream industries, and promote the industry towards high-end and branding. At the same time, actively develop cotton related service industries, such as cotton warehousing, logistics, finance, etc., and improve the industrial supporting system.

（3） Green and sustainable development trend

With the increasing awareness of environmental protection and the concept of sustainable development, the green and sustainable development of cotton industry will become an important trend in the future. In the process of planting, we will pay more attention to ecological environment protection, promote green planting technology, reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. In the processing link, energy-saving and environment-friendly production processes and equipment will be used to improve resource utilization efficiency and reduce waste discharge. In addition, it will also strengthen the ecological certification and sustainable development certification of cotton products to meet consumers' demand for green and environmentally friendly products.

V Forecast analysis of global economy

（1） Impact of global economic growth on cotton industry

Global economic growth is one of the important factors affecting the development of cotton industry. When the global economy grows rapidly, the purchasing power of consumers increases, and the demand for textiles increases, thus driving the growth of cotton consumption demand. On the contrary, when the global economic growth slows down, the purchasing power of consumers will decline, the demand for textiles will decrease, and the cotton market demand will also be suppressed. According to the prediction of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2025 The global economic growth will remain around 3% in It rose slightly in. This will provide some support for the development of the cotton industry, but the global economic growth is still facing many uncertainties, such as trade friction, geopolitical risks, etc., which may have a negative impact on the cotton market.

（2） Trade Policy and International Trade of Cotton

The change of trade policy has an important impact on the international trade of cotton. In recent years, global trade protectionism has risen and trade frictions have intensified, which has had a great impact on the international trade pattern of the cotton industry. Some countries restrict the import and export of cotton and textiles by raising tariffs, setting trade barriers and other means, resulting in increased uncertainty in the cotton market. In the future, with the change of the global trade environment, the cotton international trade policy will also face adjustment. If trade protectionism is alleviated and the process of global trade liberalization is accelerated, it will be conducive to the development of international trade in the cotton industry and promote the stable operation of the cotton market.

（3） Emerging markets and cotton consumption demand

Emerging market countries are an important growth engine of global cotton consumption. With the rapid economic development of emerging market countries and the improvement of residents' living standards, the demand for textiles is increasing, which has driven the growth of cotton consumption demand. In particular, China, India and other Asian emerging market countries have a large population and huge market potential, and their cotton consumption accounts for a large proportion of the global total consumption. In the future, with the sustained economic development and consumption upgrading of emerging market countries, cotton consumption demand is expected to continue to grow, providing broad market space for the development of the global cotton industry.

To sum up, 2025 The No. 1 Document of the Central Government has important guiding significance for the development of cotton industry clusters. By promoting stable cotton production and quality improvement, it has brought many advantages and benefits to large farmers, and also pointed out the direction for the upgrading, transformation and sustainable development of the cotton industry. Although the current cotton market is still in a weak state, the cotton industry is expected to usher in new development opportunities driven by policy support and market demand. At the same time, the development trend of the global economy will also have an important impact on the cotton industry. It is necessary to pay close attention to changes in the global economic situation and trade policies, actively respond to challenges and seize development opportunities.