Driven By Lower Production Costs, PTA Is Expected To Further Explore

Recently, with the rapid decline of international crude oil prices, the prices of its downstream products have also come down.

The PTA contract price 809 contract reached the top 9968 yuan / ton after that, there was also a fall of nearly 1000 yuan, while the far month 811 contract fell to 8200 yuan / ton. The following is a brief analysis of the domestic PTA industry chain situation to the future market trend.

The raw material of PTA is PX, which is crude oil from the source.

In China, the main industrial chain of PTA is PX--PTA-- polyester - textile, and the supply and demand of these four industries determine the price trend of PTA.

In the PTA industry chain, in the past month, the spot price of PX has fallen by 15.38%, and PTA spot and downstream products have declined.

Compared with the spot, the 809 contract price declines is only 2.96%, making the current price difference of 422 yuan / ton.

The price of PX fluctuates with the price of crude oil, but it is not synchronous with the fluctuation of crude oil. The reason is that in recent years, due to the tight supply of capacity problems, coupled with the surge in China's PTA capacity, China's PX imports depend more than 50%, and domestic PTA factories do not have a strong voice in the price of PX.

PX price positioning is one of the key factors besides PTA.

Because the profits of PX manufacturers are relatively large, the general volatility of crude oil has little effect on the price of PX, while the fluctuation of PTA price has greater impact on the price in a certain period.

This wave of PX dropped sharply. Besides the crude oil callback, the PTA factory has greatly reduced the operating rate due to the limited production and insured prices, and the demand for PX has also decreased significantly.

The decline of PX price will reduce the production cost of the PTA plant, increase the utilization rate and increase the supply. If the consumption demand is stable, the spot price will go down.

In addition, according to the China chemical fiber net, there may be an oversupply of PX in the future. The main parking devices of major suppliers such as the United States, Korea, Japan and Thailand will be restarted in the near future.

The increase in supply and the decrease in demand will make the PX price outlook continue to go down. The foundation of PTA cost push up in early June 2008 will probably disappear.

Viewed from the lower reaches of PTA, the commencement rate of the textile industry has always been very low, and there is no fundamental change in the short term. Although there are policy support for improving export rebates, the short-term upgrading capability is limited.

The operating rate of polyester industry is also at a low level. If textile demand does not increase and PTA price rises, polyester will only be able to cope with reduced operating rate.

From the perspective of the futures market, under the efforts of PTA producers to limit production and insurance prices, the 809 contract price is obviously strong, but the difference between the 809 and 811 contracts is 800 yuan / ton, which is reasonable and will accept the test of the market.

Apart from the basic analysis, theoretically speaking, such a large price difference between the 809 contract and the 811 contract has created an excellent arbitrage opportunity for investors. For conditional investors, they can also make a larger price difference through the 809 Contract Selling delivery and the 811 contract.

At present, the 809 contract is close to the delivery month, but the position is still large, and the warehouse receipt is limited.

Because the current price difference is more than 400 yuan, the 809 contract is facing the pressure of current arbitrage, intertemporal arbitrage and import financing selling.

For the short term, the market is not out of stock, but the registered warehouse receipt has a slight pressure on time.

On the whole, the price of oil still has the possibility of a large margin, and the capacity of the downstream is very limited. With the reduction of the cost of PTA production, the possibility of further lowering the price will not be excluded.