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Cotton Futures Become The Strongest Anti Bull Commodities In 2010

2010/7/13 10:06:00 30

In almost all goods because of the European debt crisis and national tightening.

policy

When the real estate control policy was slumped, cotton futures became the strongest anti bull commodity since 2010.

In the backdrop of overshoot and rebound, cotton prices have increased and prices have risen repeatedly: spot cotton prices surged to 18225 yuan / ton, while Zheng cotton price hit a record of 18350 yuan / ton in the latter part of the policy.

The reason why cotton prices are so strong is mainly from downstream.

market

The pulling of consumption and domestic

cotton

The supply itself is expected to be tight and the cotton planting area in the new year is expected.

But the restraining effect of policy factors was particularly evident in early 2010 and May.

Despite the large number of cotton import quotas issued by the state, the international cotton stocks are not high.

The price of cotton has been at the stage of adjustment because investors are increasingly cautious by the influence of the national negative control policy.

At present, cotton spot prices are at a high level and are still strong; downstream cotton yarn sales are still hot and demand is strong; cotton planting area and output are all uncertain due to weather factors, but delayed listing is already doomed.

After two months of industrial inventory digestion, there will be a great possibility of "high jump" to 19000 yuan / ton.

The price of PTA, which has been very different from cotton futures since 2010, has not been improved. Although the demand for the downstream sector has recovered and exports have improved in the first quarter, the sovereign debt crisis from Europe is becoming more and more intense, which has cast a shadow over the global economy which is seriously ill.

The complex and changeable peripheral environment, the game of the benefits of the upstream and downstream industry chain of PTA, different influence factors dominate the price ups and downs of PTA in different stages.

Changes in the external environment will become an absolute factor in the future of the PTA market.

The European debt crisis has made the global economic recovery uncertain. Crude oil is difficult to show a sharp rise in trend. The uncertainty of the European economic situation will also drag on the recovery of China's exports, directly affect the real economy of our country. The interest rate increase and RMB appreciation may be delayed. With the textile industry entering the off-season, the pressure of PTA inventory will become more obvious. Adjustment and fall will become the main keynote of PTA trend.

Since April 19th, the TA1009 contract has launched the free fall "diving", which has broken down important support and has fallen to 7308 yuan / ton.