Policy Orientation Has Become A Hot Spot In The Market. Cotton Prices Will Follow The Market Policy.

Cotton collection and storage will be launched in the new year. cotton The price will play a certain role in boosting prices. However, because of the high import and downstream demand and other factors, the purchase and storage price of 20400 yuan / ton is the visible top, once rebounded to 20000 yuan / ton above, there is no upward momentum. Investors are advised to operate in intervals.

Policy orientation has become a hot spot in the market

The policy direction is undoubtedly the most important factor affecting the price of cotton. A few days ago, China increased the import quota of 400 thousand tons of cotton for textile mills, aiming to make textile mills buy cheaper cotton. Although quota is only issued to textile factories for export, it still has negative impact on domestic cotton prices.

In addition, the most important concern is the collection and storage of reserves at the same time this year. In terms of storage, since September 1, 2012, the Central Cotton store has made unlimited acquisitions for the mainland cotton and Xinjiang cotton, the price of which is 20400 yuan / ton, which is higher than the imported cotton price and cotton spot price at the same time. In 2011, the price of 19800 yuan / ton was also very attractive, which made the acquisition of 3 million 250 thousand tons of cotton and occupied a large number of storage capacity. In terms of dumping and storage, it is said that at the beginning of September, the country will first produce 100 thousand tons of 2011 cotton reserves, with a starting price of 18500 yuan / ton.

Because of "limited storage capacity", the quality inspection of purchasing and storage is stricter than before, which means that the unlimited quantity is not entirely limited. In addition, the storage capacity is limited. In order to give the new cotton tending point, the state will throw the store. When the current import cost is about 40% lower than the domestic cotton price, the high dumping price will lead to no spanaction, which is bad for cotton prices. However, due to the smaller reserve reserves in the current state, the reserve price of 20400 yuan / ton will play a leading role.

Import price is high, cotton price is under pressure.

Since March, cotton Monthly imports continued to fall, but imports still exceeded 400 thousand tons in July. According to customs statistics, in July, China imported 406 thousand tons of cotton, a decrease of 14.7%, but compared to the same period last year, imports still increased significantly. According to the annual import volume, China imported 5 million 130 thousand tons of cotton from September 2011 to July 2012. The annual import volume far exceeded the previous year, an increase of 117% over the previous year. The author believes that in August cotton imports will also remain at a high level, mainly because cotton has been in a high import profit state for a long time. Although the recent import profits have dropped somewhat, they are still in a higher position. Cotton imports will reach more than 5 million 500 thousand tons this year, or become fixed.

The larger import volume has not been directly digested by downstream enterprises, and most of them have entered port warehouses instead of textile mills. This also leads to high domestic cotton inventory pressure. ICAC released the August Global Forecast of global production and demand. In 2011/2012, 90% of global cotton inventories grew from China, and China's cotton stocks reached 6 million tons, 3 times the previous year, and China's reserve cotton stocks increased from 300 thousand tons to about 4000000 tons. At present, the main port free trade zone in China still presents a situation of "multiple warehouses and less warehouses". The inhibition of domestic cotton stocks on cotton prices can not disappear in the short term.

Downstream demand is not good, cotton prices are difficult to do.

According to the General Administration of customs statistics, in July 2012, China's textile and clothing export growth rate dropped. 5. In June, the export of cotton yarn and cotton cloth in domestic textiles reached a good level in the same period, up by 33% and 21% over the same period, but this phenomenon did not last. Textile and clothing exports in July were 23 billion 890 million US dollars, down 8.1% from the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 33.1% compared with the same period last year. Textile exports are still facing a more severe situation. At present, the growth prospects of the world's major economies are not optimistic, and the outlook for cotton consumption is still bleak. Downstream demand continues to slump, business pressure is increasing, which will further restrict cotton demand. In the absence of a marked improvement in downstream demand, Zheng cotton It is difficult to go up sharply.