PTA: The Rebound Will Come To An Abrupt End.

Downstream replenishment contributed to price rebound

Because

It will take some time for the United States to enter the interest rate hike, so the market thinks that the US dollar's suppression of crude oil will fail.

The monthly demand and supply report released by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released in November showed that the global crude oil demand was 91 million 200 thousand barrels per day, the non OPEC supply was 55 million 900 thousand barrels per day, and the OPEC liquefied petroleum gas supply was 5 million 800 thousand barrels / day, the difference was 29 million 500 thousand barrels / day. Taking into account the regular crude oil output of OPEC at 30 million barrels / day, the global crude oil supply and demand pattern was still relatively loose, but the data predicted by this report were flat compared with that in September and October, indicating that the imbalance between supply and demand has stabilized and has not deteriorated further.

In addition,

Consumption is obviously seasonal. In December, January and February is the winter in the northern hemisphere. As the western countries mainly use heating oil for heating, the peak of the consumption season will have a boost to the price of crude oil.

In addition, the stock of downstream polyester filament is near historical lows.

As of November 7th, the average stock of filament POY was 10.5 days, down 4 days from the end of September, decreased by 27.59%; the average stock of filament DTY was 13.5 days, which was 6 days lower than that at the end of September and decreased by 30.77%; the average stock of filament FDY was 14.5 days, which was 2 days lower than that at the end of September, and decreased by 12.12%.

Polyester stocks continued to decline and remain at a low level, indicating that downstream companies have basically completed their inventory.

Because of the above three reasons, downstream enterprises believe that crude oil prices are expected to rebound steadily, PTA has limited space, polyester enterprises began to replenishment, to boost PTA demand, which is the main reason for the rebound in PTA prices.

However, it should be noted that the normal operating range of crude oil prices is between 80 US dollars and 110 dollars per barrel. Only a major market change will make crude oil prices break through this range. At present, the "major market change" is Saudi Arabia's low price dumping of crude oil.

In early market rumors, the United States and Saudi Arabia sold crude oil at a low price.

But in the near future, there is a view that Saudi Arabia will reoccupy the market by selling crude oil at a low price because of the rise of shale oil in the United States and the market share of Saudi Arabia.

Therefore, we believe that the price of crude oil is difficult to stabilize, or even the possibility of further collapse. This will greatly reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment of downstream enterprises. The market should take the strategy of buying and selling, which is mainly based on wait and see and just demand, and the rebound of PTA may be terminated.

Through the above analysis, we believe that the international crude oil prices have fallen sharply, which has hurt the enthusiasm of the market and the replenishment of the downstream banks. Although the polyester filament stocks are at a historical low level, the PTA price is hard to go against the trend and may re open the bottom finding tour.