IPO Capital Freeze Beyond Expected Peak

　　 Shenyin Wanguo Securities:

　　 IPO Frozen capital peak exceeded expectations

In the short term, the disturbance of capital under the influence of IPO may be the negative factor in the near future. According to estimates, the peak value of funds frozen next week may reach 1.5-1.6 trillion, which is the largest amount of funds frozen in a single IPO this year. However, the 7-day capital of the stock exchange has risen sharply on Tuesday, and the pressure on funds in the coming week will not be small. However, in the long run, under the current economic background, the pattern of monetary policy will not be broken: first, the economic data and industry performance in October continue to be weak, and the fundamentals can not bear the high interest rate environment; Second, the generally expected real estate recovery did not appear in October. Among the 70 major cities, the number of new commercial housing prices fell month on month reached 69, and the price drop further expanded year-on-year, and the house prices are still in the process of finding the bottom; third, the central bank has continuously made targeted money supply before IPO, which shows the central bank's attitude of maintaining capital stability.

　　 UBS Securities:

Interest rates may be cut by 75% next year basic point

At present, the challenge of macro monetary policy is how to find a delicate balance between different policy objectives, that is, to avoid excessive stimulus, to aggravate structural imbalance, to accumulate financial risks, and to avoid economic "hard landing". In the future, global liquidity may become tighter with the Fed's exit from quantitative easing. It is expected that the central bank will take a more active role in regulating liquidity, ensure sufficient liquidity in the financial system, and may reduce the deposit reserve ratio if necessary.

The central bank is expected to reduce the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans by 75 basis points to 5.25% by the end of 2015. Since the beginning of this year, although the money market interest rate has fallen sharply, the weighted average interest rate of loans has only dropped by 23 basis points by the end of the third quarter. At present, the proportion of RMB loans in the increment and stock of social financing scale is still as high as 60% and 65% respectively, and bank loan pricing is still mainly around the loan benchmark interest rate. As a traditional monetary policy tool, reducing the benchmark lending rate may be more direct and effective in the current environment. As a result, the central bank's policy of reducing interest rates will not be triggered by the situation that the central bank will continue to adjust its leverage.

　　 CSCI Securities:

The policy of targeted relaxation will continue to increase in the year

However, with the weak economic policy in the fourth quarter of this month, the momentum of economic recovery is still weak. The policy of targeted relaxation will continue to be strengthened. Monetary policy has been more relaxed in the third quarter, and more than 760 billion yuan of basic currency has been put into the medium-term loan facility alone. However, the increase of base money did not form the corresponding increase of loan and money supply, and the liquidity accumulated in the inter-bank market and did not enter the real economy. How to make funds enter the real economy is the key to reduce the cost of social financing and stabilize growth. The reality is that it may be difficult to realize the smooth conversion of economy and financing only by the market itself. Therefore, in the case of non-standard restrictions, it is necessary to increase the credit line and give window guidance to promote its investment. At the beginning of 2015, there may be centralized loan issuance. In 2015, a more relaxed and expected monetary policy is needed, and the total policy of interest rate reduction and reserve requirement reduction will be implemented.