A Shares Have Undergone 3 Major Trading Styles.

Because the loose money still can not find a desirable allocation of assets, from the next one or two years of choice, the stock market is still a rare reservoir of funds.

Of course, there will be a fundamental change in the future - registration may be late, but it will never happen.

This is one of the most significant institutional changes in the A share market, which will fundamentally overturn the existing paction logic and style.

In the short term, the majority of the year-end assessment will be completed in mid December, and the enthusiasm of traders is not enthusiastic. The whole market is still a game of stock funds.

In addition to completing the profit as soon as possible, they are also preparing for the end of the year to report on the performance of investors.

The market is likely to enter a stage of weak adjustment. Before the Fed's interest rate rises this month, we propose to wait and see.

Stage 1: the age of Zhuang stock 1998~2004

After the Asian financial crisis, the overall performance of listed companies was poor and stock market capital was scarce.

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The only thing that can arouse interest in the market is stock with merger and reorganization news, because we all need to anticipate in a weak market.

With the story of mergers and acquisitions flourish, Chuang became a consistent choice between all institutions and shareholders.

Zhuang's strength is closely related to the scale of funds it can mobilize.

From the Department of Science in Lvliang, the "Derby" of "capital empire", fry, Zhuang and Ting Zhuang became the main trading logic and theme preference of the generation of investors and traders.

In April 13, 2004, the collapse of the Deron system really meant the end of the core trading era.

The Shanghai Composite Index has also completed its low starting point from 1043 in 1998 to a high level of 2245 in 2001, and finally returned to 998 in 2005.

The second stage: the era of value 2005~2010

After joining the WTO, China's economy has entered the golden age of low inflation and high growth.

The favorable balance of foreign trade has risen steadily, and the foreign currency has been rising year by year. International capital has begun to flow, the performance of listed companies has increased rapidly, the real estate market has become increasingly hot, asset prices are rising day by day, and the split share structure reform is officially launched.

Because of the amazing performance of China's economic fundamentals and the incentive dividends brought about by the reform of non tradable shares, the reports of listed companies are more unexpected than the year after year. Because of the confidence in growth and expectations for performance returns, retail investors and institutional investors have formed a consensus concept of value investing.

Buffett's story has become the most inspiring stock market language.

The survey and estimation of the performance of listed companies is the only recommendation for almost all analysts.

At the same time, all the means of collecting achievements, such as guarding the number of pick-up trucks at the factory gate, asking for the market volume and so on, began to prevail at this time.

Seeking high growth and undervalued companies has become the core trading logic and style preference at that stage.

At the same time, countless grandmothers were learning.

Analysis method.

A hundred hundred white horse shares were born in that era. Guizhou's Moutai, Yunnan Baiyao, China's ships, and China's security are familiar to all shareholders.

From 998 points in 2005 to 6124 in October 16, 2007, and then to two rebounds at 3478 in 2009, A shares ushered in a long bear market.

The third stage: shell share era 2010~2015

After the "4 trillion" boom subsided, the main industries overcapacity, and the economy switched rapidly between inflation and deflation.

In the stock market, the number and size of small and medium-sized stocks gradually occupy the center of the stage, and the Internet has also blown pigs in the draught.

Small cap stocks and gem become a fast and effective way.

In addition to breaking the brain and winning a listing, asset restructuring and backdoor listing are quicker and more effective. Shell resources are becoming more and more expensive.

With the shell, the story of the concept can create a miracle of ten times a night.

Since 2010, ST has been fired. All retail investors and institutions regard small cap stocks as the main theme of creating capital myths.

As long as small enough, as long as the main business is bad, as long as there is no substantive business composition, then the market believes that the theme will come, even the shell market has given a fair price, from the peak of 10 billion yuan to today's 1 billion 500 million yuan.

Of course, the arrival of the creation of God has enlarged the miracle of this round.

From the end of last year to the shock of the stock market this year, the 2600 point of the market was that the gods and small bills really took the lead.

Even the hot stocks like China's central car are far behind the "flying pigs" of all pass, storm, music and so on.

The price earnings ratio was blown up in front of the draught, and A shares ushered in the market dream era.

The fourth stage: the champion era started in 2016?

Last Friday, the 200 point "broken ends" occurred in the market after the loss of tools, also occurred in the RMB before the SDR basket of currencies, occurred in the future pension market before the MSCI accession is expected to come true.

However, the most important factor is the registration system, which will completely terminate the last paction logic and style preference.

As a result, A shares will welcome the fourth handover of paction logic and style preferences.

At present, the registration system has not yet been implemented, but it is certain that it will come. Then the shell resources will completely bid farewell to scarcity, and the real market pricing era will be opened.

In mass companies, the focus of attention and consensus expectations are the basic prerequisites for the rise of stocks.

Subdivision champion, industry leader, star enterprise can become the hot spot of the market.

From the macro cycle perspective, the economic growth in the next few years will still be consolidated at the bottom; from the development trend, the motive force to get out of the bottom cycle comes from the new growth rather than the old recovery.

Then we believe that the birth of the champion will have two logics:

First of all, as the capacity of the traditional industries is cleared up, those enterprises that are truly efficient will show greater competitiveness, thereby gathering more market share in the downturn period and forming the oligopoly of the next period.

In cement, steel, shipbuilding, chemical industry, nonferrous metals, textile and other traditional capacity industries, we see that this phenomenon is taking place, and some enterprises are creating unexpected possibilities.

Secondly, for high-tech and emerging technology industries, some invisible champions are being born. These enterprises have not only completed the replacement of imported products and the shift of the global value chain of labor division, but more importantly, they are forming technological standards, technological lines and intellectual property rights with China as the core, and have formed rapidly rising competitiveness and influence in the international market.

In the new materials, new energy resources, information and communications, intelligent manufacturing, heavy equipment, marine engineering, biopharmaceutical and other important areas, a number of potential stars have emerged.

At the next stage, perhaps industry researchers will share the glory and light of macro strategy researchers.

Just like before, investors in the stock market will start a new round of learning climax, but this hot spot is not a macro economy, but a cutting-edge technology.

Written here, we feel that the A share market has promoted the construction of our learning society.

It's not easy to be a shareholder.