Cotton Has Entered A Period Of Rapid Rise After The Launch Of Reserve Cotton.

According to the voice of the economy, the fact that the 1701 cotton futures contract in the futures market has risen more than 60% this year, and the spot price of the world's cotton is rising.

Ren Liang, an investment adviser to Huarong securities, believes that the first reason is the weather. The larger cotton producing countries in the world are cutting production, and the planting area of cotton in China and the United States is decreasing year by year.

Apart from this great environmental factor, we found that this year's cotton prices began to rise before the rise of reserve cotton, and entered a period of rapid rise after the launch of cotton reserves.

"Now there are some difficulties in using cotton in our enterprises."

Hubei textile company insider told reporters this difficulty, in this year's cotton prices rose in the environment, in fact, there are more difficulties in the use of cotton textile enterprises.

A few days ago, nearly 150 cotton textile enterprises in Hubei, Shandong, Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and other places, in various ways, reflected the problems existing in the storage of cotton by the cotton textile industry association of China (hereinafter referred to as the Cotton Textile Association).

In April this year, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice, and decided to gradually digest the state reserve cotton inventory from this year.

In the previous 2015/2016 years, China's cotton production and production demand is increasing.

A cotton textile industry spokesman who asked not to be named told the daily economic news that "textile companies are reluctant to increase their inventories at the beginning of this year because they heard they need to store their stores."

But so far, cotton prices have risen rapidly for a variety of reasons. "The market has created a new imbalance between supply and demand."

Cotton prices soar, textile enterprises shoulder pressure alone

At the beginning of April, the price of Zheng cotton began to rise rapidly, breaking through the expected price of people.

As of July 22nd, the closing price of 1701 cotton futures contracts reached 15195 yuan / ton, up more than 50% from 10030 yuan / ton in April 1st.

At the same time, the national reserve cotton sales base price is also rising, according to the China cotton reserve management company announcement data, 25 to 29 days (thirteenth weeks) in July, the reserve cotton price of the standard grade sales price was 14376 yuan / ton, compared with last week's sales base price 13609 yuan / ton up 767 yuan / ton, compared with the reserve store cotton wheel in the first week 12021 yuan / ton sales base price increased by nearly 20%.

"Such a fast speed up, enterprises must be unable to bear."

A textile industry spokesman who asked not to be named told the daily economic news reporter.

Cotton prices are rising, but prices can not be pmitted to the downstream. Textile enterprises can not digest the high cost of raw materials.

The above textile industry sources told reporters that because export is in a negative growth state, domestic sales are slowing down, and terminal demand is not strong, so cotton prices can not be pmitted, and cotton textile enterprises can not digest such a high cost of raw materials.

From the investigation and research situation of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, the situation of cotton textile enterprises has become more and more serious since May, and production has been declining.

If the price of cotton price rises, if the cotton price can be carried on, cotton textile enterprises can make money, "but at present, the price rise is difficult downstream.

Now the downstream is in the off-season, so there is not much demand for the cotton market. "

A good government is a bit untimely.

The imbalance between supply and demand has led to a rapid rise in the cotton market this year.

The reporter said that in 2015/2016, cotton production in the country has seen a marked reduction in production. "On the one hand, the planting area has decreased. On the other hand, the reason for the decline is that the yield per mu has dropped, and the drop may reach 1 million tons."

At the same time, he said that in recent one or two years, domestic cotton prices have dropped, and they have gradually been in line with foreign cotton prices. The competitiveness of domestic textile enterprises has been improved, and the demand for cotton has also been increased.

Above

People told reporters that at the beginning of this year, textile enterprises did not want to increase their inventories. "Because I heard that they had to store them, the price of storage was relatively low at the beginning."

"This year, the state has restricted imports, and it is supposed to make up for the market demand by throwing and storing up. But it was postponed to May in March because of various reasons. These two months have exhausted cotton in the spot market."

Huang Shanghai told the daily economic news reporter.

And so on, put the cotton reserve on sale, but met the new rules of public inspection.

According to the announcement issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance in April this year, the cotton reserve issued by the China Fiber Inspection Bureau organized a comprehensive notarization test on quality and weight. "The proportion of public inspection has increased from 30% to 100%, and the volume of public inspection has not been up."

Huang Shanghai said.

Public inspection is not a key reason for less cotton reserves.

"Comprehensive public inspection is aimed at improving the quality of national cotton reserves.

Textile enterprises are worried about the quality of national cotton reserves, and China Cotton store has made an improvement in the test to give the textile enterprises a reassurance.

Huang Shanghai said, "I think this is a very good policy, but I just said there are some problems in this year's environment."

In addition, the enthusiasm of traders to participate in the national cotton auction is very high this year, and also helped to raise cotton prices. Data show that the cotton produced by traders has accounted for more than 35% of cotton.

In April this year, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice, and decided to gradually digest the state reserve cotton inventory from this year. Under normal circumstances, the number of daily reserve cotton sales is not more than 50 thousand tons.

If the market price of domestic and foreign markets has increased significantly during a period of time, the sale rate of reserve cotton auction will exceed 70% of Zhou Yousan's day, and the sales volume will be increased appropriately.

In addition, it is stipulated that the reserve cotton rotation will continue from May 3rd to 31 days in August, and the number of daily sales will not exceed 30 thousand tons in principle, and the total output will not exceed 2 million tons.

Statistics found that by the end of 22, all trading days in July were 100%, although the number of listed sales has been maintained at 30 thousand tons, but in July 22nd, it was back to 25 thousand tons.

In fact, since May 3rd, the volume of cotton reserves has been increased by more than 70% every day, but the state has not increased its output accordingly.

Huang Shanghai believes that "throwing reserves from 30 thousand tons to 50 thousand tons, due to the fact that the speed of public inspection can not keep up, there is a real bottleneck.

The established policy is now at the end of August, but can be thrown in September and October. As long as the market is in short supply, it can be thrown away. I think this policy can be achieved, and there is no difficulty in terms of execution.

Textile enterprises collectively put forward suggestions that under the condition of less than 50 thousand tons of daily delivery, the amount of input can be increased through other schemes. For example, "cotton and untested cotton should be put in at the same time," respectively, "2011 auction year, and 2012 batches of cotton in batches of Xinjiang Corps shall be sampled by 30%."

In addition, some textile enterprises suggest continuing to put in reserve cotton in September and October.

And for traders' hoarding behavior, enterprises also hope to have targeted measures.

Huang Shanghai said in this analysis, "traders hoarding cotton may wait until September and October to sell again. If the stock is not listed, if the new cotton is not listed, the market will be out of date. At that time, the price may be higher."