Zheng Cotton Plummeted, The Market Bearish Mentality, Raw Yarn Can Not Escape The Weak, 10 Or There Is A Turning Point?

Market brief

In September 27th, 10209.3374 tons of resources were sold out of the cotton reserves, with a turnover of 5714.3164 tons, with a turnover rate of 55.97%. The average transaction price was 11684 yuan / ton, down 317 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of 3128 yuan was 12929 yuan / ton, down 257 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. Xinjiang cotton trade average price of 12067 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton discount 3128 price 12966 yuan / ton, Xinjiang cotton price increase 246 yuan / ton. The average price of real estate cotton is 11446 yuan / ton, the price of real estate cotton is 3128 yuan, 12907 yuan / ton, and the increase rate of real estate cotton is 187 yuan / ton. From May 5th to September 27th, the cumulative turnover of cotton reserves totaled 979 thousand and 100 tons, with a turnover rate of 85.94%.

The cotton price of the spot cotton fell down, basically down by 200-300 yuan. The cotton mill fell sharply, and the cotton mill in the early stage was plunged into a loss. The majority of the ginning mills in the mainland were in a difficult position. The majority of the ginning mills in the market had to stop and wait until the market was stable and the purchase of the cotton mill was maintained. In the face of a sudden drop, cotton growers boycotted a strong mentality, and the cotton seed purchase volume dropped sharply, and the purchase of Xinjiang cotton mill also contracted. The turnover of the cotton mill continued to decline. The turnover rate and the average selling price continued to decline. With the new flower coming on the market, the spot supply of cotton was fast, and the spot price of the cotton was fast peatling. The market was empty and the spirits were warming. The spot price was still under the downward pressure. Zheng cotton would be down or down, and it would pay attention to the progress of Sino US trade negotiations in October 10th. Before the festival, the market atmosphere was empty, and the margin of Zheng Cotton Exchange rose to 10%, and many of them came out one after another. In addition, some bail funds were admitted. On the 27 day, Zheng cotton broke down sharply, creating a new low price of 12010 yuan in the year.

Acrylonitrile prices remain at a high level and the fundamentals are limited. At the end of the month, spot supply continued to be tight, and the market continued to keep up with the news. However, the spot market was limited, and there was no lack of high-end reports. Some of the high prices still had no market price. The National Day approached, and some businesses were away from the market. The market was concerned about the guidance of new factory information, and the price of acrylonitrile was expected to remain narrow. Acrylic staple fiber prices remain stable, the market has no new information guidelines, downstream cotton mill orders generally, raw material procurement enthusiasm is not high, the market bearish mentality to maintain, raw material stability and shock, acrylic factory steady price mentality, market wait and see new news guidelines, the National Day holiday is coming, short term attention to raw material trend, the expected price of acrylic fiber will remain stable.

According to the regulations of the Shang Dynasty, Da Shang and Zheng Shang, the market transactions during the National Day are arranged as follows: September 29, 2019 (Sunday) closed on weekends. There is no continuous transaction at night on September 30th (Monday). The market will be closed from October 1st (Tuesday) to October 7th (Monday). On October 8th (Tuesday), all futures contracts of 08:55-09:00 were auctions and continuous transactions were made that night. The market will be closed on Saturday, October 12th. In addition, the adjustment of the margin and the limit of the trading of some varieties of the holiday has changed. Investors should pay close attention to the Futures Company announcements and adjust their positions in time to avoid market risks. I wish you all a happy National Day.

According to some cotton enterprises in the territory, since the middle of 9, cotton trade enterprises in the mainland have increased significantly. Traders and cotton enterprises signed a "pre procurement" contract, clear the number of purchases, according to the approval of the delivery warehouse and settlement of goods, or directly purchase spot, and other results of the public inspection, according to the index differences, the implementation of "more back less subsidies". Several large and medium-sized Cotton Traders in Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Jiangsu and other places indicated that the purchasing funds of enterprises were relatively adequate (owned and loans), hoping to rapidly expand the scale by purchasing large quantities of warehouse receipts. At present, the biggest worry for traders is that although the purchase contract is signed (Zheng cotton makes the corresponding quantity blank list), once the lint price is rebounded and the contract breach occurs, it will easily lead to the speculation of consigned insurance, and the risk will increase correspondingly. According to the survey, 40% cotton sorting machines in Changji, Jinghe and Shawan counties in Northern Xinjiang are purchasing 4.5-4.8 yuan / kg for cotton picking and weighing, including processing fee, short fee, regulatory library "lump sum cost" and 4 month financial expenses. (CF2001 contract hedging) the comprehensive cost of lint is 11500-11800 yuan / gross (gross weight). At present, the price of the CF2001 contract is 12500-12600 yuan / ton (fixed), and the net profit is not less than 800 yuan / ton, so the enthusiasm of traders and cotton enterprises to enter the warehouse and guarantee is high.

The people's Bank of China authorized the China foreign exchange trading center to announce that the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market in July 17, 2019 was RMB 1 yuan =6.8827 yuan, so the customs exchange rate of imports and exports in August 2019 will be calculated at 1 US dollars = 6.8827 yuan. Look forward to the import and export business of cotton and textile enterprises. (July 2019 was 6.8893). According to the 2005 Announcement No. fifty-third issued by the General Administration of Customs in October 30, 2005, the rate applicable to import and export cargo tax rates for each month is third Wednesday on the previous month (third Wednesday is a statutory holiday, and fourth Wednesday is postponed).

On September 27th, at the 2019 Second World cloth merchants conference held in Keqiao District, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, representatives from 45 countries and regions jointly issued the "world cloth merchants Manifesto". The declaration pointed out that, facing the future, the relevant countries will adhere to open cooperation, constantly push forward the interconnection of industries and markets, and jointly enhance the development level of the industrial chain; persist in technology driven, continuously strengthen basic research, applied research and technology transformation, and jointly enhance the industrial foundation capability; change the trend of cohesion, and give full play to the role of textile and clothing as a cultural carrier and a bridge of civilization, and jointly enhance the value of industrial culture. The world textile merchants conference gathered about 45 countries and regions of the textile industry representatives of about 1200 people, around the world economic trends in the textile industry, to explore the sustainable development of the global textile industry and win-win cooperation.

In September 27th, the opening ceremony of the 2019 "Zhang Jian Cup" China international home textile product design competition and the international exhibition of the folding stone bridge home textile was held at the Haimen peri stone bridge. This competition has received nearly 500 sets of works from home textile enterprises, colleges and independent designers from 5 countries and regions at home and abroad. The exhibition includes 6 exhibition areas: the "Zhang Jian Cup" design competition, the special exhibition area, the international home exhibition area (foreigner business exhibition), the export textile exhibition area (export export exhibition area), the brand home textile exhibition area, the non bedding exhibition area and the featured theme exhibition area, attracting 5000 exhibitors, purchasers and more than 10 thousand home textile brand enterprises from more than 50 countries and regions such as Russia, Pakistan and India. It is reported that after more than 30 years of cultivation and development, the domestic textile industry of the overlapping bridge has formed a super domestic textile industrial cluster with "complete industrial chain, high quality of public service and sound functions", covering 8 surrounding counties and districts, more than 30 townships, about 500000 employees, and more than 2500 home textile enterprises, including more than 300 home textile enterprises above Designated Size, more than 300 foreign-invested enterprises and foreign trade enterprises, and the annual production capacity of home textiles exceeds 200 billion yuan, and foreign trade supply accounts for 1/10 of the whole country and 1/2 of Jiangsu.

In September 26th, the Council of the Asian Textile Association (FAPTA) was held in Keqiao, Shaoxing. Fu Guangwei, executive vice president of the China Textile Engineering Society, was elected chairman of the fifteenth Asian Textile Association. The association of Asian textile associations is the most influential Asian international academic organization in the field of textiles. It was founded in 1989 by the association of textile engineers and chemists of Korea, and together with University of New South Wales of Australia, Taipei Textile Engineering Society of China, Hong Kong Polytech University, India Textile Association, Iran Amir Kabir Industrial University, Korea fiber society and Japan fiber society. The Asian Textile Conference (ATC) is an important event of FAPTA, which is held every 2 years and has now become one of the major events in the world's textile industry.

In 1-8, the total profit of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size reached 4 trillion and 16 billion 350 million yuan, down 1.7% compared with the same period last year, and the decline was unchanged from 1-7 months. Among them, private enterprises realized a total profit of 1 trillion and 130 billion 340 million yuan, an increase of 6.5%; the total profit of manufacturing industry was 3 trillion and 304 billion 500 million yuan, a decrease of 3.2%; in 41 major industrial sectors, 28 industries total profits increased year-on-year, 13 industries decreased, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry dropped 13.1%, textile industry decreased 3.4%; in the month of September, industrial enterprises above Designated Size achieved operating income 68 trillion and 390 billion yuan, up by last year; the operating cost was RMB yuan, growth was increased; and the operating income margin was less than that of the same period, down by a percentage point. In August, the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size amounted to 517 billion 790 million yuan, down 2% from the same period last year, and 2.6% in July.

In the past week, the price of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn in India has dropped slightly, and the price trend is consistent with the raw materials. The India government intends to strongly support the cotton price in the new year, which is unfavourable for domestic yarn businesses. At present, yarn prices in India have further stabilized, polyester cotton yarn trend is more weak, cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn fell by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. At the same time, the prices of cotton and chemical fibers have declined, so it is not surprising that yarn prices have gone down. Analysts believe that the new year will be a large number of India cotton market will bring greater pressure on domestic cotton prices, S-6 has seen rapid decline in recent days. However, after the new year begins in October 1st, the government protection price will play a role, so the cotton mill will once again fall into the dilemma of rising domestic prices, rising raw material costs and falling international prices. It is understood that the decline in operating profits has led to a large number of yarn production capacity was forced to close. In addition, India's cotton imports surged, and the US cotton lost its popularity in India. The price of PET staple fibers may also be supported by rising cotton prices, prompting textile and garment manufacturers to turn to cheaper products, and sales of recycled fiber may increase substantially in the coming months.