In March, Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Sharply, And The Pressure On Production And Operation Of Enterprises Was Still Large.

Enterprises resumed production and accelerated production significantly accelerated

In March, the purchasing managers index dropped sharply in February.

Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the National Bureau of statistics service industry, March 2020 interpretation of China Purchasing Managers Index

In March 31, 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

In March 2020, China's overall efforts to promote the prevention and control of new crown pneumonia and economic and social development achieved positive results. The situation of epidemic prevention and control continued to improve, production and living order was steadily restored, and the resumption of work and production of enterprises accelerated significantly. China's purchasing managers' index fell sharply last month, with the manufacturing industry PMI rising 52%, up 16.3 percentage points from last month. The non manufacturing business activity index was 52.3%, up 22.7 percentage points from last month; the composite PMI output index was 53%, up 24.1 percentage points from last month. As of March 25th, the rate of resumption of large and medium-sized enterprises in the national purchasing managers survey enterprises was 96.6%, an increase of 17.7 percentage points compared with the February survey results, of which the recovery rate of manufacturing enterprises was 98.7%, an increase of 13.1 percentage points.

1. 21 manufacturing industries PMI have picked up in varying degrees.

In March, except for the price index, the sub index of the purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing industry all rebounded. The main features are as follows:

First, the supply and demand of the market has improved, and the purchasing ratio of enterprises has increased. Production index and new order index were 54.1% and 52% respectively, up 26.3 and 22.7 percentage points from last month, and the production index is 2.1 percentage points higher than the new order index, indicating that the manufacturing capacity has recovered. The purchasing volume index was 52.7%, up 23.4 percentage points from last month, and the activity of purchasing activities was more active than that of last month.

Two, the policy effect is gradually emerging and enterprises are expected to pick up. The manufacturing industry activity index is 54.4%, up 12.6 percentage points from last month. Among them, food and alcoholic beverage refining tea, medicine, special equipment, automobile, computer communications and electronic equipment manufacturing industry were higher than the average level.

Three, the recovery of new kinetic energy is relatively fast, and the PMI of high technology manufacturing industry is higher than that of the whole. From the key areas, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries is 55.8%, 54.5% and 52%, of which the PMI of high technology manufacturing is 3.8 percentage points higher than that of the manufacturing industry.

Four, enterprises of different sizes have recovered and the recovery of large enterprises is relatively fast. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.6%, 51.5% and 50.9% respectively, up 16.3, 16 and 16.8 percentage points from last month. From the market expectation, the expected production and operation activities of large, medium and small enterprises are 55.5%, 52.5% and 54%, respectively, higher than that of last month's 11.2, 12.5 and 16.6 percentage points.

Although the manufacturing industry PMI rebounded sharply in March, the survey results showed that the pressure of production and operation is still relatively large. The proportion of enterprises with tight funds and insufficient market demand was 41.7% and 52.3% respectively this month, up 2.6 and 4.1 percentage points from last month. From the external environment, the epidemic spread rapidly in the world, and the growth of world economy and trade has been seriously impacted, bringing new severe challenges to our economy. In March, the new export orders index and import index of China's manufacturing industry were 46.4% and 48.4%, respectively, although the rebate rate rose slightly, but at a low level.

Two, non manufacturing business activity index bottomed out

In March, the non manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.3%, 22.7 percentage points higher than that of last month, and other classification indices also rose to varying degrees.

The service sector has generally recovered. The service business activity index was 51.8%, up 21.7 percentage points from last month. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except for the securities industry, other industries have picked up in varying degrees, among which transportation, retail, banking and other industries have relatively high business activity index. From the market expectation, the business activity anticipation index is 56.8%, up 17.1 percentage points from last month, including postal express, retail, telecommunications and other industries are higher than the overall. The business activity index of life service industry is 50.2%, lower than the total index of service industry by 1.6 percentage points. Among them, accommodation, catering, tourism, residential services, cultural, sports and entertainment industries are greatly affected by the epidemic situation.

Construction industry accelerated recovery. The construction business activity index was 55.1%, up 28.5 percentage points from the previous month, of which 62.4% of civil engineering and construction industry. From the labor demand and market expectations, the construction industry employee index and business activity expectation index were 53.1% and 59.9% respectively, up 20.8 and 18.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Three, China's enterprise production and business activities generally recovered faster.

In March, the composite PMI output index was 53%, an increase of 24.1 percentage points from last month, and the manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index, which constituted the composite PMI output index, were 54.1% and 52.3% respectively.

Although the purchasing managers' index in March reflects the obvious positive changes in the production and operation of enterprises this month compared with that in February, the current situation of domestic and international epidemic prevention and control and the economic situation is still undergoing major new changes. The world epidemic is spreading rapidly and spreading, and the world economy and trade growth has been seriously affected. Chain recovery is facing new challenges, and the trend of the purchasing managers' index remains to be continued.