Spandex Industry Business Cycle Approaching, Price Increase Of More Than 80% In Recent Half A Year

According to price monitoring, since August last year, the domestic price of spandex has continued to soar. As of February 25, the average market price of 40d specifications was 57000 yuan / ton, up 84.47% compared with the lowest price on August 12, 2020. After the Spring Festival, the spandex industry started to operate at a high level of 90%, but the manufacturers were in short supply. In addition, due to the increased pressure of cost support, some manufacturers of spandex will not quote for the time being, and the new order will not receive the reservation for a single discussion. At present, many large-scale spandex factories are brewing a new round of price hikes. After hearing about the Lantern Festival, the latest offer will be made.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan / ton)

Raw materials rise sharply and cost support remains unchanged

The price of raw materials in the upstream of spandex has continued to rise. Since the Spring Festival, the domestic PTMEG market in the field of spandex has accelerated its upward trend. Driven by the strong rise in cost side BDO and the support of PTMEG's own supply and demand side, the focus of negotiation has continued to rise. In terms of price, the mainstream quotation of 1800 molecular weight goods source is 35000-40000 yuan / ton, and the main negotiation is 30000-35000 yuan / ton, which is 8000-12000 yuan / ton compared with February 9. The start-up of the industry is maintained at around 80%. Specifically, among the 40000 tons of plant shutdown in Yizheng Dalian, the operation load of 60000 ton plant in Panjin Changchun is not high, and the 50000 ton unit of Xinjiang Meike is in stable operation and planned to be overhauled in March. Pure MDI traders are reluctant to sell, and the quotation is rare. At present, the reference price in the local market is 27000-27500 yuan / T. 75% of the industry has been started, and the construction is fair. In March 2021, Wanhua chemical implemented 28000 yuan / ton of pure MDI in barrel, and increased by 4000 yuan / ton month on month.

The supply of spandex is tight, and the inventory is at the historical low level in recent three years

Under the influence of the new epidemic situation, the global demand for anti epidemic materials such as masks and protective clothing has increased significantly, and the downstream orders, especially foreign orders, have exploded. The expansion and restraint of spandex industry in the past few years has led to the increasingly tight balance of supply and demand. Since November last year, the factory has no inventory of basic conventional products, and the inventory of the industry is always very low. In addition, this year's national policy of celebrating the new year on the spot has increased the demand of downstream factories to prepare goods before and after the Spring Festival, which has exacerbated the tension between the supply and demand of spandex. With the recovery of downstream logistics and resumption of production after the Spring Festival, the export volume of spandex has also increased significantly. The inventory of most spandex factories is at the historical low level of nearly three years, with the inventory level of 10-15 days, and even some manufacturers say that they have no inventory.

Industry boom cycle approaching, prices are expected to continue to rise in the first half of the year

At present, the high business cycle of the spandex industry has formed, and the top enterprises of spandex have increased their production. In January this year, Xinxiang Chemical fiber announced that it is planned to increase no more than 1 billion yuan, which will be used for the first phase project of annual output of 100000 tons of high-quality ultra-fine denier spandex fiber and supplement the working capital. Huafeng Chemical, another leading spandex enterprise, also announced in January this year that it plans to invest 4.36 billion yuan to build 300000 tons / year differential spandex project. Small and medium-sized Spandex Enterprises that do not make money have begun to resume production. Increasing production capacity, so that the market began to worry about the sustainability of high price spandex. Business agency analysts believe that from the current spandex industry supply and demand, raw material price trends, at least in the first half of this year, spandex prices are expected to continue to rise. To be specific, although the start-up of spandex manufacturers is at a high level, part of the supply is still very tight, and the downstream terminal demand field has not been fully resumed. In addition, most of the new production capacity is put into operation in the second half of this year, and the supply shortage is difficult to ease in the short term.