There Is No Car To Sell In The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" Program. The Discount Is Shrinking And The Price Is Increased To Collect The Car. The Supply And Demand Of The Car Market Is Seriously Unbalanced

"Gold nine silver ten" consumption evolution

The social welfare zero data in August was still weak, 2.1 percentage points lower than that in July, which was significantly lower than the market expectation, which was largely affected by the epidemic situation. Therefore, the market hopes that "gold nine silver ten" can reverse the weakness of consumption. However, the current epidemic situation in Fujian may have an impact on the consumption of double festival holidays. At present, there is no sign of outbreak of major categories such as automobile and electronic consumption. The traditional "gold nine silver ten" consumption peak season may lose the market expectation in this autumn.

Due to the strong promotion efforts, and coincides with the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, September and October every year are good opportunities for consumers to see and buy cars, but this year's "golden nine silver ten" is a bit special.

Due to the shortage of automobile chips, China's automobile production and sales have declined for four consecutive months since May, and the market has entered a special period of "supply determines demand". According to the National Bureau of statistics, the added value of automobiles in August was - 9%, which was at a recent low level. The total retail sales of automobile consumer goods in August decreased by 2% year-on-year. In the first two weeks of September, passenger car retail sales fell 9% year-on-year, according to CAAC.

At the same time, the shortage of car sources also has an impact on consumers' car purchase. The most obvious is the reduction of dealer's discount, the extension of waiting time and even the increase of car price.

On September 17 and 18, the 21st century economic reporter visited several 4S shops in Beijing and found that most of them did not have advertisements to promote sales, and the car sales staff were not as enthusiastic as in previous years.

Is it right to buy a car now? When the reporter proposed the replacement vehicle purchase demand, the sales staff gave different opinions.

Some sales staff said, "if it's not so urgent to buy a car, it's just a replacement, it's OK to wait. Now the price is not very suitable." but some sales people said, "the core problem can't be solved in the short term, and the shortage of car supply will last at least one year. Although it's more expensive than at the beginning of the year, maybe the discount will continue to shrink."

"This year's" golden nine silver ten "should not be very good. The lack of core has led to the channel inventory of joint venture and luxury car companies at a very low level. The promotion efforts in the car market have been significantly recovered, and the overall production and sales in September are still not optimistic." on September 18, Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of passengers, told reporters of the 21st century economic report. In the next few months, I'm afraid it will be difficult for car consumption to improve significantly, and the market sentiment is still relatively pessimistic.

The CAAC said that due to the high domestic automobile production and sales in the fourth quarter of last year, the automobile production and sales situation in the remaining months of this year is likely to be negative year-on-year growth for several consecutive months, but the negative growth of automobile production and sales in the whole year is unlikely to occur.

"This year, China's automobile production and sales growth may be about 2% - 4%, but not more than 6%," Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, told reporters in an interview with the 21st century economic report.

Promotion efforts continue to be recovered

Since the beginning of this year, with the shortage of chip supply, some manufacturers' production capacity has decreased, unable to meet the market demand, dealers' inventory continues to decline, and the car market discount rate shows a recycling trend.

In August, affected by the epidemic situation in Malaysia, the shortage of upstream chips and parts intensified, the downstream terminal sales and supply were insufficient, the dealers' inventory further declined, and the structural shortage contradiction of the automobile market was further revealed.

According to the data of China Automobile Circulation Association, in August this year, the comprehensive inventory coefficient (Inventory: sales volume) of automobile dealers was only 1.37, lower than the warning line of 1.5. Among them, the inventory coefficient of luxury brands and imported cars is 1.11, that of joint venture brands is 1.34, and that of independent brands is 1.5.

On the whole, luxury brands are more affected than ordinary brands, and joint venture brands are more affected than independent brands.

How much does the lack of core make the car price rise?

Although the demand for consumption upgrading and high-end purchase increases continues to be strong, as the "chip shortage" begins to spread to the terminals of luxury brands, the luxury car market falls into the first decline in recent years, and the sales of most brands, including BBA, have declined.

The reporter of the 21st century economic report learned that at present, Mercedes Benz, Audi, BMW and other popular brands need to wait for a long time. The terminal price of Mercedes Benz and BMW has been relatively stable in the past two years, and the preferential power has been less. At present, the price fluctuation is small, while the preferential power of Audi has obviously shrunk.

"The guide price of Audi A6L 2.0T, with a guide price of 419800 yuan, was about 360000 yuan before May, and now it is 400000 yuan." on September 17, a sales staff of Audi Volkswagen in Chaoyang District of Beijing told reporters of the 21st century economic report.

The sales staff told the 21st century economic report that since June, the number of existing cars in the store has been decreasing, especially for the three popular models of A4L, A6L and q5l, and the waiting time is getting longer and longer.

In terms of joint venture brands, the discount for Japanese and German cars has shrunk even more.

A SAIC Volkswagen 4S sales staff told reporters that the 1.5T version of Lavida's discount was about 5000 yuan; The comprehensive discount of Tiguan l was reduced from about 30000 yuan to 20000 yuan.

As for FAW Volkswagen, the prices of Bora, Suteng and maiteng are also rising, and the source of vehicles is very tight.

In terms of Japanese cars, Honda Accord's discount has shrunk from 12000 yuan to about 5000 yuan, while the discount for x-rv, Bingzhi and other volume models has also decreased. Toyota has always controlled the inventory and terminal price, and the discount has been relatively small, but the price change is not obvious.

However, due to the rise in German and Japanese prices, some joint venture car companies which have performed slightly worse in recent two years can recover some lost land through price during this period.

"Regal luxury version of the 1.5T discount still has 40000, as long as 150000, tens of thousands cheaper than accord, now to buy Regal must be more suitable than accord." September 17, Beijing Chaoyang District of a SAIC GM 4S store sales staff told reporters.

The internal differentiation of independent brands is also relatively serious. Among them, the best-selling models of great wall, Geely, BYD and other auto companies have appeared the situation of "one car is hard to get", but some second and third tier brands are now affected less.

The Great Wall's 300 tank price is not favorable, and it takes a long time to wait. "At present, it will take at least half a year to pick up the tank 300, and the earliest time to wait until the end of the new year. Moreover, there is no discount for ordering a car." on September 18, a salesman of Beijing yiyouwei's 4S shop told the 21st century economic report.

BYD's DM-I model needs to wait at least three months without any discounts. "We are trying to solve the problem of production capacity. At present, the production capacity of DM-I model is on the climbing stage, and there will be great improvement in the fourth quarter." on the evening of September 8, Wang Chuanfu, chairman and President of BYD group, apologized to BYD users at a press conference.

At present, Tesla, Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile and other new energy vehicle enterprises all adopt the direct marketing sales mode, keep the terminal price uniform, and use app to place orders and queue vehicles for delivery. At present, the delivery cycle has not changed significantly, and the main models need to wait for two weeks to one month after the order is placed.

Now selling cars is like selling "futures"

In the first half of this year, from the perspective of key indicators such as gross profit, net interest rate, asset turnover rate and inventory turnover rate, the operation of listed dealer groups has been greatly improved.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, 11 listed dealer groups including Zhongsheng holding, Guanghui automobile, Yongda Automobile and harmony automobile, which have announced the first half of the year's performance, have all achieved a substantial increase in business income. Among them, Zhengtong automobile, which is under greater pressure, also achieved a year-on-year growth of 8% in the first half of this year.

However, the great challenge brought by the serious shortage of global automobile chips has brought great uncertainty to the automobile market in the second half of the year.

"Now the supply of cars is tight and there are fewer cars. Of course, we hope that the price of bicycles can be sold a little higher. Now the discount is a little less, but we are also afraid that customers can't wait for the orders." an auto salesman told the 21st century economic reporter.

Some salesmen have no choice but to say that selling cars now is not the same as selling existing cars before. It's like selling "futures". They have no idea.

Some sales staff told reporters that they would retain consumers through regular communication and appropriate provision of some small concessions or follow-up maintenance rights and interests.

However, it is worth noting that in the process, some 4S shops have also taken the initiative to raise the price in violation of the regulations and give priority to taking the car, requiring the installation of service packs, and selling the exhibition car as a new car, which has damaged the rights and interests of consumers.

Some car companies have proposed stricter management measures for dealers.

Guo Yongfeng, general manager of FAW Volkswagen sales company, said in an interview with the 21st century economic report that "through digital management, consumers can sign orders directly with 4S stores in the past. Customers can place orders online, and then reasonably allocate vehicle sources and delivery time according to the number of orders, so as to protect the rights and interests of consumers."

"Dongfeng Nissan has set up a special chip risk management mechanism and a rapid decision-making mechanism, which is followed up every day. From the manufacturer's manufacturing, marketing, channels to consumer orders, it has formed a network structure, and all information is flowing rapidly to maximize the utilization of resources." on September 9, Chen haocun, assistant general manager of Dongfeng Nissan Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., told reporters of the 21st century economic report.