Market Analysis: The Current Situation And Future Trend Of Textile Industry Affected By Various Factors

 

In the whole year, China's textile and clothing exports reached 315.5 billion US dollars, which continued to grow steadily on the high trade base in 2020, setting a new record. It fully demonstrated the tenacity of the whole industry chain under the control of the industry and the international competitive advantages of high efficiency and stability.

In 2022, the prices of many international bulk commodities have risen significantly. The cost side of the textile and clothing industry is under pressure, and the superimposed demand is low. The cost is difficult to transmit to the terminal consumption. The profits of the intermediate industry chain are threatened. The whole industry appears a picture of "the peak season is not prosperous, and the off-season is even weaker".

In the first half of 2022, due to the unstable international situation and other factors, the crude oil price of "king of commodities" increased significantly, and the prices of downstream chemical fiber raw materials PX and PTA increased significantly with the crude oil price. In terms of cotton spinning, affected by international cotton prices, domestic cotton prices have been running at a high level since the fourth quarter of 2021, and are still at a relatively high historical level.

The change trend of cotton price is similar to that of chemical fiber price. In the first stage, the trend of the fourth quarter of 2021 will continue to run at a high level, while in the second stage, it will drop significantly. In terms of textile raw material and raw material prices, the price rise of textile raw materials will weaken in the first half of 2022 due to the rise of textile raw material and raw material price.

Since the beginning of this year, due to various factors, the working mobility of residents has been reduced, some residents' income has been reduced, and their worries about living expenses have been increased. The influence of "home office" mode has restrained the consumption of clothing upgrading to a certain extent. There is a phenomenon of "potato economy" in economic development, that is, people's spending is more cautious, mainly used for the consumption of basic necessities such as "potatoes", which has a certain adverse impact on the consumption of clothing and other non necessities. The retail value of textile and clothing in the first quarter of 2022 is similar to that in the first quarter of 2020, showing a continuous decline; From May to June, the domestic epidemic prevention achievements were remarkable, and the residents' life gradually returned to normal. In the case of a small gap between May and June in previous years, the year-on-year growth in June increased from - 16.2% in May to 1.2%, gradually approaching the normal level in the same period of previous years.

On the whole, the total retail sales of textile and clothing goods in the first half of 2022 is generally lower than that of the same period in previous years. On the one hand, the retail value of textiles in the same period last year was relatively high, resulting in a high base. On the other hand, due to the turbulence of international situation and domestic epidemic prevention and other factors, residents tend to save and reduce their consumption of clothing and textiles, After April, with the relief of emergencies, the offline consumption of residents gradually recovered, driving the demand for clothing and other things gradually improved.

In theory, the rising costs will be gradually transmitted down the industrial chain, so as to protect the profits of each link. However, in the case of poor demand, the market price of terminal products may fall into a difficult dilemma of "price without market". In order to ensure the smooth sales, terminal consumers are bound to tend to stabilize the price or reduce the price to ensure the revenue of terminal sales; Secondly, for the textile industry, the proportion of raw materials in terminal sales is less than 20%, and the soaring raw material cost is difficult to smoothly transmit to the terminal clothing and textile sales. Therefore, the production of intermediate products must bear high costs. Compared with the downstream textile industry, the profits of the chemical fiber industry chain in the middle position have a greater decline, and bear more pressure from the cost side. Taking PTA production as an example, the processing cost in the first half of this year was lower than the average value most of the time, and even appeared a rare negative value. According to statistics, PTA enterprises are in a loss when the processing cost is lower than 600 yuan / ton. As a result, PTA industry lost money most of the time in the first half of 2022.

In order to alleviate the pressure of loss, most enterprises choose to reduce the operating rate. From March to April, the operating rate of polyester and downstream textile industry decreased significantly. Since May, it has improved, but it is still at a relatively low historical level.

From the perspective of textile export, in the first half of 2022, January, March, may and June all achieved a year-on-year positive growth. In the case of domestic demand encountering "Waterloo", China's textile export situation is relatively optimistic. On the one hand, China's textile exports account for a large share of the world. In 2021, China's textile exports accounted for about 43% of the world. International demand is relatively stable. Although there are adverse effects such as unstable geographical situation and frequent epidemic, it is controllable as a whole and has limited impact on textile and clothing demand. On the other hand, China's textile and clothing industry production has a certain degree of resilience, and actively resume production in the second quarter, ensuring the supply of exports. In addition, the high international commodity prices and the devaluation of RMB also have a certain role in promoting the export volume of textile and clothing. The relative stability of international demand to a certain extent makes up for the impact of domestic demand downturn, and alleviates the contradiction between supply and demand of chemical fiber textile industry chain.

In the first half of 2022, the textile and garment industry is in the situation of high cost, falling supply and low domestic demand. The international demand is relatively stable, and the overall export growth is positive year-on-year, which has certain support for the textile and clothing industry. Since April, various factors have gradually improved, but there is still a gap between the data and the historical reasonable range. In the second half of the year, the pressure on the cost side will be weakened. The impact of high cost on the chemical fiber textile industry chain will be weakened. The main factors affecting the price are expected to return to the supply and demand side, among which demand is the key factor. It is expected that with the arrival of the "golden nine silver ten" in the peak season of textile and garment consumption, the support role of the demand side for the market will be strengthened.