Data Analysis Of USDA Forecasting Global Cotton Industrial Cluster Output

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) The Outlook Forum predicted that the global cotton output in 2025/26 is expected to be 116.7 million bales, which is opposite to the decrease of 3.8 million bales in 2024/25. The global cotton consumption in 2025/26 will increase to 119 million bales, an increase of 3% over the previous year, of which China's consumption growth accounts for about 50% of the global cotton consumption growth, and the cotton consumption of India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other countries will rise slightly in a steady manner.

However, judging by some institutions, international cotton merchants and trade enterprises, the USDA Outlook Forum's forecast of global cotton consumption growth is too optimistic, and the year-on-year growth rate of 3% is obviously high. The reasons are briefly summarized as follows:

First, Trump will once again wave the "big stick" of levying tariffs in 2025. Not only will China and Southeast Asia, East Asia, South America and other countries encounter resistance in the growth of cotton consumption, but also the import of cotton products from Europe, America, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Australia and other developed countries will also face pressure, and the global cotton textile and clothing industry chain will be impacted more.

Secondly, in 2025, the fluctuation of the US dollar will increase, and the currencies of various countries will fluctuate widely. The adjustment of the US dollar index will also have a greater impact on the purchase and consumption of cotton products in Europe, the United States and other countries. Most analysts believe that in 2025, the US dollar may be higher in the first quarter and lower in the second quarter. The monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the interest rate gap between the United States and other countries, and the economic data of the United States will all affect the strength of the dollar.

Third, the imposition of tariffs on small cross-border commodities or the adoption of tariffs by most countries in the world will lead to a decline in cotton demand in major textile countries, including China, Vietnam, Indonesia, India and so on. The United States has cancelled the tax exemption policy and T86 customs clearance mode for small commodities below $800. For example, the "Sword of Damocles" has fallen at any time, while Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries have imposed tariffs on small cross-border commodities in advance, which may spread globally.

Fourth, as the United States, Mexico, Indonesia and other countries have increased import tariffs and trade barriers, the price of cotton textiles, cotton clothing and other products has risen, cost pressure has been passed on to end consumers, and the demand for cotton and other raw materials has been turned back.